Swedish sawmills are less negative in July than during previous month regarding the expected export prices in the next three months, according to the most recent analysis from The National Institute of Economic Research. The data for July in detail shows that 17% (previous month: 9%) of the sawmills expect higher export prices, 45% (28%) expect unchanged export prices and 38% (63%) lower export prices.

The confidence indicator for sawmills in Sweden increased to 95.3 in July (compared to previous month) (seasonally adjusted figures). The indicator is based on an average of the surveyed questions regarding order books, stock of finished goods and expected production volume. 

51% of the surveyed sawmills in Sweden consider total orders on hand as "just right" in July. 5% consider they are "relatively large" and 44% consider they are "too small". The seasonally adjusted balance increased slightly to -47 in July.

New orders from the domestic market increased in July compared to previous month to a seasonally adjusted balance of -36. 19% of the surveyed sawmills consider new domestic orders increased in July and 61% consider new domestic orders were unchanged. 20% of the sawmills consider new domestic orders decreased. 

Shown below is the relation between prices (red line) and assessment of the stocks (blue line, seasonally adjusted figures). The trend line for the stocks is in a decreasing trend. The line for the prices remains at a high level, but has decreased since the record high levels seen during 2021-2022. The stocks include figures for July and the prices include June.

The seasonally adjusted balance for the estimated production during the next three months increased to -12 in July compared to previous month. 9% of the sawmills consider the production will increase during the next three months. 67% consider the production will remain unchanged and 24% of the sawmills expect a lower production.